President Donald Trump
I assume it's still acceptable to have a Trump thread in a Politics forum?
So this is an obvious lie - basically aimed at
When does the tax free overtime kick in?
Trajectory of MAGATs
either
MAGATs > Trump can do no wrong > rinse repeat ad nauseam
or
MAGATs > Trump can do no wrong > wait and see > it's dems' fault for having a terrible candidate > There is no further progression. There is no self-realisation possible, or any ability to take responsibility.
Trajectory of MAGATs
either
MAGATs > Trump can do no wrong > rinse repeat ad nauseam
or
MAGATs > Trump can do no wrong > wait and see > it's dems' fault for having a terrible candidate > There is no further progression. There is no self-realisation possible, or any ability to take responsibility.
I have no loyalty to either party or vested interests. Every election is a new binary choice. Just extremely clear who Trump is and always has been to anyone with 2 ears and a brain.
It doesn't really matter. MAGAs do not care what you or I think or do, they're just looking for the imaginary enemies they have been told they have.
This is the smart part of "MAGA" which you people deny exists
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Bill Ackman
@BillAckman
·
2h
The tariff levels listed on Trump’s chart for our counterparties were not accurate. The administration used an arbitrary calculation (exports - imports)/(imports)and defined this as a country’s tariff level.
Using this measure and calling it ‘tariffs’ enabled the chart to appear as if we were setting lower tariff levels than our counterparties. While there are other trade barriers that are not tariffs and the administration was trying to account for those with this methodology, this calculation, in nearly all cases, massively overstates effective tariff levels. The arbitrary nature of the calculation is part of what spooked markets.
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Bill Ackman
@BillAckman
.
@VDHanson
makes a compelling case for the
@realDonaldTrump
tariff strategy, but gets one issue incorrect. He describes the Trump tariffs as reciprocal and proportional to those other nations have assessed on us.
In actuality, the Trump tariffs were set at levels substantially above, and in many cases, at a multiple of the counterparty country’s tariff levels.
Initially, the market responded favorably, up more than one percent when Trump referred to ‘reciprocal tariffs’ in his Rose Garden speech. It was only when he put up a chart showing the actual tariffs that the markets plunged.
We can divine from this response that market participants are supportive of the administration using tariffs as a tool to lower the asymmetrical tariffs of our trading partners, but are highly concerned with tariff levels set well in excess of a corresponding country’s levels.
So why did Trump take this approach?
The answer goes back to ‘The Art of the Deal.’ Trump’s negotiating style is to ask for the moon and then settle somewhere in between. It has worked well for him in the past so he is using the same approach here.
The market’s response is due to the fear that if this strategy fails and the tariffs stay in place, they will plunge our economy into a recession. And we don’t need to wait for failure as it doesn’t take long for a high degree of uncertainty to cause economic activity to slow.
Press reports today have said that all deals are now on hold. This is not surprising. Capitalism is a confidence game. Uncertainty is the enemy of business confidence.
The good news is that a number of countries have already approached the negotiating table to make tariff deals, which suggests that Trump’s strategy is beginning to work. Whether this is enough to settle markets next week is unknowable, but we will find out soon.
The idea that Wall Street and investors are opposed to the President’s efforts to bring back our industrial base by leveling the tariff playing field is false. Our trading partners have taken advantage of us for decades after tariffs were no longer needed to help them rebuild their economies after WWII.
The market is simply responding to Trump’s shock and awe negotiating strategy and factoring in some probability that it will fail or otherwise lead to an extended period of uncertainty that will sink us into a recession.
The market decline has been compounded by losses incurred at so-called pod shops and other highly levered market participants that have been forced to liquidate positions as markets have declined.
Stocks of even the best companies are now trading at the cheapest valuations we have seen since Covid. If the President makes continued progress on tariff deals, uncertainty will be reduced, and the market will begin to recover.
As more countries come to the table, those that have held out or have reciprocated with higher tariffs will have growing concerns about being left behind. This should cause more countries to negotiate deals until we reach a tipping point where it is clear that the strategy will succeed. When this occurs, stocks will soar.
Trump’s strategy is not without risk, but I wouldn’t bet against him. The more that markets support the President and his strategy, the higher the probability that he succeeds, so a stable hand on the trading wheel is a patriotic one.
An important characteristic of a great leader is a willingness to change course when the facts change or when the initial strategy is not working. We have seen Trump do this before. Two days in, however, it is much too early to form a view about his tariff strategy.
Trump cares enormously about our economy and the stock market as a measure of his performance. If the current strategy works, he will continue to execute on it. If it needs to be tweaked or changed, I expect he will make the necessary changes. Based on the early read, his strategy appears to be working.
Let’s help him succeed. It’s the least we can do.
Not impressed.
.
So, I haven't been following things for a while, how is our very bigly stable genius getting along?
Vance is right as usual
This is the smart part of "MAGA" which you people deny exists
/
Bill Ackman
@BillAckman
·
2h
The tariff levels listed on Trump’s chart for our counterparties were not accurate. The administration used an arbitrary calculation (exports - imports)/(imports)and defined this as a country’s tariff level.
Using this measure and calling it ‘tariffs’ enabled the chart to appear as if we were setting lower tariff levels than our counterparties. While there are other trade barriers that
The deadly flaw in all this (even if we assume trump & co are sufficiently adept) is the art of the deal is essentially to do with sales where it's a number game. You walk away from the deals you dont make with pretty much no repercussions. That dont work in the real world where you still have the consequences to deal with (pun intended).
Nonetheless usa is staggeringly powerful and no doubt most countries are looking to deal. Personally I doubt trump & cos abilities to handle this well and the dangers of unintended consequences are very large. How this works out over the shortish term is very hard to say. As usual those misarguing that it is bad because the usa economy will do badly are making us all a hostage to fortune with no upside while cementing a right wing view.
Make toxic chemicals great again!
The Trump administration is quietly carrying out a plan that aims to kill hundreds of bans on highly toxic PFAS “forever chemicals” and other dangerous compounds in consumer goods.
Make black lung disease great again!
https://apnews.com/article/doge-mine-saf...
The Department of Government Efficiency, created by President Donald Trump and run by Elon Musk, has been targeting federal agencies for spending cuts. That includes terminating leases for three dozen offices in the Mine Safety and Health Administration, the agency responsible for enforcing mine safety laws.
The proposals for MSHA are “idiotic,” Stewart said, and would give coal companies “the green light to do as they please.”
The deadly flaw in all this (even if we assume trump & co are sufficiently adept) is the art of the deal is essentially to do with sales where it's a number game. You walk away from the deals you dont make with pretty much no repercussions. That dont work in the real world where you still have the consequences to deal with (pun intended).
Nonetheless usa is staggeringly powerful and no doubt most countries are looking to deal. Personally I doubt trump & cos abilities to handle this well and the d
The flaw is about the quantitative estimate that Trump actually wants to negotiate this time. I mean i understand why the early talks with Vietnam and Thailand can give that impression. And i also understand past flip-flopping gives that impression.
But the "vibe" was different this time and at the very least i do not think the 10% everywhere tariffs are going to be removed, and i think markets think the same.
I suppose it's reasonable to think that if several of the over-10% tariffs are negotiated down, that would improve sentiment in the markets though.
There is also another element that people are underestimating, which is courts could strike "liberation day" deliberations down, because the IEEA (the law used to implement these tariffs) requires an emergency to be declared, and unlike previously with canada-mexico-china, where trump used the fentanyl emergency as the main excuse to use the same law, afaik there is no emergency being used to justify the worldwide tariffs, nor the amounts.
So even if courts usually defer to POTUS a lot in determining what an emergency is, it looks like this time Trump might have simply not applied the law properly even in a stretched reading allowing him wide scope in applying it.
Make illiteracy great again!
The Institute of Museum and Library Services has placed its entire staff on administrative leave.
The IMLS is a relatively small federal agency, with around 70 employees, that awards grant funding to museums and libraries across the United States.
Let them eat cake!
https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-...
He woke up on Friday morning at Mar-a-Lago, his private club in Palm Beach, and headed to his nearby golf course a few miles away after writing on social media that “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO GET RICH.”
What are your views of poster Brian James? Do you like him? Do you want to be considered on the same level as him?
don't even know what he means, but it's provocative
gets the people going
balls so hard
--
this place is already a circle jerk, but imagine the valhalla of the masturbatorium if people like BJ weren't here inciting riots.
The flaw is about the quantitative estimate that Trump actually wants to negotiate this time. I mean i understand why the early talks with Vietnam and Thailand can give that impression. And i also understand past flip-flopping gives that impression.
But the "vibe" was different this time and at the very least i do not think the 10% everywhere tariffs are going to be removed, and i think markets think the same.
I suppose it's reasonable to think that if several of the over-10% tariffs are negotiate
I was allowing trump & co a level of skill. I dont really believe they have it. I agree the possibility of tariffs being declared unlawful or the elected houses turning decisively against trump are possible. It does get mentioned in the press.
But it's still mssing that trump is used to just walking away from his many failures to get a deal. That's the essense of sales deals but this is real world politics. A totally different dynamic.
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Yeah. All we need to do is train affirmative action rurals like Vance in solid state physics and algorithmic design. Their backwards culture and intelligence levels won't be a problem at all!
Depending on the list you check, the most needed profession in the USA right now is either registered nurse or home health and personal care aide.
There is also a huge demand for restaurant cooks, PV installers, forklift operators, electricians, plumbers and so on.
Where is the significant state-subsidized investment in forming those skillsets? can people get a federal insured loan to access a course to become an electrician with the same ease they can get a loan to study gender issues in college?
