2024 Fantasy Football Thread
Welcome to the 2024 fantasy season, where I'm officially addicted to best ball. I've been drafting since the end of Jan
Something I’ve been thinking about a lot lately is 0 rb strategy. I think it’s still viable, but not in the way it was traditionally done where it’s like 5 wr qb and te through 7
I think 0 rb now works a bit different and I don’t think it should include elite te (it can but it makes it more difficult imo)
I view it as something that looks more like
Wr
Wr
Wr
Rb (Jacobs/skattebo)
Rb (swift/tuten/monty)
Qb
Rb (mondre/pollard/warren/chuba)
0rb will always be viable as long as there are talented RBs going late in drafts. You just need enough chaos to happen to allow your late RBs to be difference makers. But the whole point is that you get enough points from everyone else that you can survive on just 1 or 2 RBs being useful until that chaos does happen.
These were a couple of my most recent 0rb teams I did in the Milly and how I started thru 8
4 WR, 1QB, 3RB
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WR, TE, WR, WR, 2RB, QB, RB
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I think those are baseball players haha, 0 nfl players is definitely a new draft strategy
I get the logic behind 0rb, I just don’t think the old way of doing it works in this landscape or said another way - it can work but I think you give up too many projected pts to actually make it viable
DraftKings. Pick 12
I couldn’t resist taking Mahomes way past ADP.
I got sniped on Bryant
QB) Herbert, Murray, Mahomes
RB) Jeanty, Henderson, A Jones, K Mitchell, Bigsby, Blue
WR) Jefferson, D Smith, Ladd, Watson, Jennings, T Hill, T Harris, T Franklin
TE) Kraft, Hock, Colar
Something I’ve been thinking about a lot lately is 0 rb strategy. I think it’s still viable, but not in the way it was traditionally done where it’s like 5 wr qb and te through 7I think 0 rb now works a bit different and I don’t think it should include elite te (it can but it makes it more difficult imo)I view it as something that looks more likeWrWrWrR
If I had to bet on one start that is most likely to be the nuts, it's this, minus the RB in round 7. I think you can go many paths after the first 6 picks and while I've been taking the 7th round RBs, I think the Mondre/Pollard/Warren/Chuba group is quite trapy, especially for end of season. They're all dead zone backs, just a few rounds cheaper than normal.
Plenty of ways the early RBs aren't enough with the later WRs compared to the upside RB profiles in rounds 4-6 paired with the early WRs.
And while the 6th round QBs are great, there are plenty of outs where the 8th-10th round QBs are better for the money weeks. And maybe even a few from the group drafted in rounds 11-15.
I'm going to be building a lot more variations the rest of the way, especially less robust RB and more heavy WR start.
I do think even zero RB back in the day, it was bad to take 5+ WRs through 6-7. The same goes for fragile RB where you have 4 through 4-6. I just don't think it's good building strategy to start guaranteeing zeros from your picks in the first 6-8 rounds. There's a reason double elite QB and even bully TE are not looked upon as good strategy, and I think those reasons can translate to WRs/RBs too.
I do think you can include TE where you replace one of the first 3 WRs with TE and it still works fine if you pick 2 WRs from rounds 7-10. So then you come out with something like 1-4-4-1 or 1-3-5-1, maybe even something like 2-3-4-1. I've still been making sure to have 3-4 RBs through round 10, but it doesn't have to necessarily mostly come from the first 2-3 rounds. And there are upside profiles in rounds 8-10 that make it more viable.
I think with the heavy RB landscape, based on watching streams and reading X, quite a few drafters have forgotten certain best ball principles:
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1. We aren't playing for week 1.
2. While weeks 1-14 are important, advancing 30-40% of your teams doesn't matter if you don't make it to week 17. Or even if you make it to week 17, plenty of teams aren't actually good enough to win. A situation I've found myself in the last 2 seasons that I'm trying to correct.
3. Everyone is so worried about the success, floor, projection, whatever you want to call it of each team being drafted, they forget that baseline advancing is only 2/12. Many teams will fail.
4. Evaluation of the actual profiles you want to see fit together on a team that makes it to week 17. One reason I'm out on picks like Jakobi, Kupp, Shakir, etc.
5. Projections are actually pretty dumb and irrelevant for best ball, imo. ADP already mostly accounts for it, anyways.
6. Spike weeks are really all that matter, and I truly couldn't care less if I pick a guy RB25 and he finishes RB20 if he doesn't spike enough and/or at the right time. That's not actually a good pick, even though the player technically finished higher in position than where you drafted him.
7. This isn't redraft.
Alright, got that off my chest haha.
My favorite teams lately have 4 WRs thru the first 6 rounds. Then either taking an elite QB and 1 RB, or 2 RBs.
Although, I did get a little weird with this start, probably ending on 3-7-8-2 or 3-7-7-3 depending on which TEs and WRs are available in the 20th.
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I do think you can include TE where you replace one of the first 3 WRs with TE and it still works fine if you pick 2 WRs from rounds 7-10. So then you come out with something like 1-4-4-1 or 1-3-5-1, maybe even something like 2-3-4-1. I've still been making sure to have 3-4 RBs through round 10, but it doesn't have to necessarily mostly come from the first 2-3 rounds. And th
I still like 1-3-5-1 thru 10, but 2-3-5-0 is also nice if you don't get an elite TE and with QBs being pushed up more.
I like that if you can land it. I’ve also been willing to go heavy QB, if the stacking lines up. Maybe that team is a little too much QB capital, but it’s also a lot of fun. Each of your top 3 WR picks stacked with a QB is the kind of build that if it advances, has a lot of money week upside.
And Henry, Ferg and Strange + other WRs on those teams will all fit nicely as you move through the draft.
Here's how it ended up. You could definitely make the argument for Engram over Sarratt at the end, but I like Bryant more as a bring back.
The other thing I could've done differently was going Ferguson/Tracy instead of Likely/CRod.
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Agreed, I've hardly clicked Engram. Just have to ride TE thin at that point in this build but could be tough with only those 2.
I think I might have gone Ferg/Tracy, as Tracy profiles much better on DK than CRod. Likely/Tracy could have been fun too.
From an optimal standpoint, probably best to pass on TLaw at 85 for another position, but it's also fun to build this way sometimes.
Keep me posted on how your squad ends up. I'm curious because i clipped coupons early in the draft and ended up with 0 top 25 dynasty players according to fantpros dynasty rankings - so pretty much the opposite of your strategy.
Here’s how it ended up pre waivers (will need to fill 9-10 more spots)
I think I made some mistakes in not saving a bit of money for later to get up to 25ish players from the draft, but I’m pretty happy with the team generally
12x13 dynasty best ball SF, 6pt passing td, .1 ppc, 2tep
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I maxed the $3 on DK, and didn't get a single 1.01 or 1.02
From an optimal standpoint, probably best to pass on TLaw at 85 for another position, but it's also fun to build this way sometimes.
I used Fantasy Pros scoring from last season to tally up points added by both Dak and TLaw. It's not exactly 1 to 1, since DK has bonuses. But it still gives a good idea of the value of each pick.
For both Dak and TLaw, I evaluated points added as the 2nd QB behind Maye and as the 3rd QB behind the other.
Pretty interesting exercise. Dak as the 2nd QB added 64.6 points. TLaw as the 2nd QB added 73.5 points. Dak as the 3rd QB only added 26.8. TLaw as the 3rd QB only added 34.2. However, two of TLaw's value added weeks were in the playoffs, which is results-oriented but also part of the thesis. I don't think it does a ton for advance rate and probably hurts it, because you likely expect a WR, RB, TE at that point in the draft over Dak or TLaw adds more points to the team, especially during the regular season. Though, of course, there will be bad non-QB picks at the 7/8 turn too. But I do think it raises your ceiling in the playoff weeks, particularly when it's stacked with an early WR pick.
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I'm down. I look at my teams, and with 6/12 advancing, I don't know how I don't get all of them to Week 2 lol
I'm in.
Chihuahua 1 down - 24 to go
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Looks good!
The ETR discord bros have been arguing that Hunter is the worst pick on the board and I really don’t get it (I understand their argument I just don’t get how they don’t see the upside)
He obviously has the risk of being a 0 and at that part of the draft, that’s not good, but any of Jakobi, Btj, Washington could fail or get hurt and he becomes a smash
He can even pay off the price with a few spikes as a part time wr, the risk reward just seems so worth it
He’s basically the same price as rookie Pearsall and cheaper than rookie Burden. And they both paid off big in w17, without much else throughout the season. Hunter surely has the same single week upside as each of them if he’s running routes.
Everyone is so damn concerned with downside in contests where w17 is all that matters and most non-QB/TE picks past 100 ADP only give a few usable weeks, anyways.
If you’re playing volume and have 0% Hunter, you’re doing it wrong.
I’ve also decided to mostly not give two shits about beat reports this year, and especially reports that came in February lol.
